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Sustainable
eNews |
August 2002 |
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IWMC
World Conservation Trust |
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Climate Change
A very Historic Perspective
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Imagine what it would be like on this planet if it
were so cold that agriculture was out of the question. Millions, even
billions of people, would quickly starve and die. Only a few of the many
species of creatures now living would be able to survive without vegetation
and constant warmth. Only those people able to hunt the few surviving large
mammals would be able to carry on, as people did in the days before
civilization, when humans were hunting animals with sharpened sticks. If
they were lucky, they had fire. The last great glaciation, called "The
Wisconsin" in North America, was experienced all over the world, and
it ended only 13,000 years ago. Since the major, massive ice sheets
retreated, a few minor warming trends and repeat cold spells happened,
causing the people who experienced them to retreat from the ice, or advance
farther north when it shrank once again. Since the end of that last major
glaciation, people as a species have prospered and covered all of the
earth, except the Antarctic.
That glaciation was not unique, as the same scenario had happened time
and again over millions of years. The in-between times were sometimes very
hot all over the world, but the ice always came back. It was two miles
thick and nothing could ever stop its advance.
Although it's a very unpleasant and scary prospect, everyone should
realize that right now, we are experiencing an interglacial period. After
this brief moment in time, and after an interval of increased warmth, the
massive ice will come again, down from the north, up from the south,
regardless of our industrial, automotive, or agricultural emissions.
Nothing we can possibly do will stop this re-glaciation, as the cycle
continues, in harmony with sun spots and earth orbital variation and the
tilting of the earth on its own axis. So let us cope with the coming of a
period of increased global warming before the deep freeze. Some island
nations in the Pacific will be inundated, as polar ice melts in this cycle.
Many of the world's coastal cities are going to be covered with sea-water
within the next few hundred years. Some of the earth's leaders are going to
experience political pressure to "stop the warming" by decreasing
industrial emissions. These efforts are certainly laudable from a
perspective of doing what is humanly possible to improve the immediate
environment. No people, no area of the earth, should have to suffer from
industrial emissions that can be diminished or prevented.
It would be criminal to ignore the problem. Yet, some nations' leaders
believe it would be lunacy to sign the Kyoto protocol when less developed
nations are given the go-ahead under it, to continue to emit pollutants
that could be prevented. People have to come up with a better way to
curtail pollution as much as possible. We may be a part of global warming,
but even with that trend happening, we are absolutely not capable of
staving off the next glaciation.
Against this backdrop of impending chill, the campaigns of organizations
such as Greenpeace seem incredibly simplistic and self-serving. Campaigns
against industrial emissions, with dire predictions of the dangers of
global warming, all make millions of dollars and increase the political
credibility of those organizations that promote them. They will not
significantly diminish industrial pollution, however, because the world's
leaders are all watching their own industries, their employment figures,
and the welfare of their own people. We can't ever go back to a
non-industrial existence, until the world itself gives us no other choice.
When the globe is through warming, (a time, incidentally, of great benefit
to some areas' agriculture) then the next glaciation shall come along, and
it won't be a good time to be a vegetarian. The environmentalist
doom-sayers are happily blaming President Bush and his fellow world leaders
for not signing the Kyoto Protocol.
IWMC believes that the reality of the world's long-term climatic future
is a matter of the overwhelming forces of nature. Until then, each nation
has to face the ethics and the economics of alternative energy choices and
balance those with the pragmatic realities of available energy supplies.
Good luck, world.
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